Brazil is not taking advantage of the vacuum left by other countries in political and trade relations with China, with Australia, and remains in an unstable balance between that country and the United States in the context of the trade war. The analysis was made by the principal researcher of the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre-FGV), Livio Ribeiro, at Live the valor this Friday.
“In this specific aspect of raw materials, China has always had two important suppliers, Australia and Brazil. But Australia has a strategic position that has recently changed and very much in line with the American performance. [na Austrália] a lot of concern with the dependence on China, with the issue of national security on the technological agenda: this discourse on 5G actually begins in Australia and not in the United States for example, ”he observed .
“Australia and China are clearly on a collision course and this could be a golden opportunity for Brazil. Except Brazil also has a relationship with China which has been very difficult for the past two years. positioning [brasileiro], which could be interesting, is not used at the level that it could be ”, Ribeiro analyzes.
Even so, he says, there has been an increase and concentration of Brazil’s export basket to China. “We can summarize this agenda in five products: animal proteins, iron ore, soy and its derivatives and crude oil. This corresponds to 90% of exports to China. It is a dangerous program because China is strategically diversifying this program using Africa. It won’t change in a year or two, but we have to look at five or ten years. The situation is going well until it no longer depends on us ”, explains Ribeiro.
For the specialist, this process, which involves new suppliers and also new needs from China, tends to deepen with advances in multilateral projects, such as the “ One belt, one route ” initiative (One Belt, One Road), the extension of new corridors and the new Silk Road. “It is China that is trying, in one way or another, to influence the supply chain. It leaves the middle of the chain, where it produces intermediate equipment and begins to produce the whole products, to modify them, ”he said. Ribeiro says that we must forget the image of “made in China”, which refers to assembly in the country, and start to consider a scenario of “created in China”.
On the Brazilian position in the middle of the trade war, the expert says that Brazil is in “a delicate and bad situation”, because it has always been in the sphere of American geopolitical influence. However, he says, today and over the past 15 years, it is China that has consolidated itself as an investor in Brazil, with the entry of companies.
“There is a need to balance the historical sides with these recent ties to China. We have to adapt to this reality, this frictional war. [entre China e Estados Unidos], and it is a debate which needs more critical mass in the country ”, continues the economist.
This reinforces the thesis that the US-China trade war is migrating to the old diplomacy under the Joe Biden administration in the United States, but it does not stop, tending to last into 2021 and into the years to come, on structural issues that go far beyond the terms of trade, affecting issues such as the environment, technology and multilateral agreements.
– Photo: Reproduction