After 2020, what opportunities open up in the future? After a deep recession caused by the epidemic, most companies point to a partial recovery by 2021.
Beginning in 2021, it will be the new, more contagious spread of the virus, which will cause disruption in health services and lead to new restrictions, closure of non-essential activities, isolation and death. It is a continuous process that marks the first months of the year. Bad news for the economy, namely tourism, small businesses, live cultural activities and a wide range of economics. The hypothesis of a first-quarter recession has not been rejected.
But 2021 will be marked by a global vaccine against Govt-19. The speed at which each country succeeds depends on its total revenue for economic activity and its level of recovery. There are already more advanced countries than others. Portugal is not in a very advanced place.
The pace of recovery will be marked by European government funds, essentially the ability of each country to modernize its economy, create jobs, produce wealth and distribute it evenly.
Without strengthening the measures of corruption (prevention, identification and punishment), Portugal runs the risk of wasting these funds and again delaying its European partners / rivals, i.e. those from Eastern Europe. The current product shortage is not exactly there.
If so, we will see the beginning of a new migration from the Portuguese and the exodus of many immigrants from the middle of 2021, if others multiply the vaccine first and use European government funds better and faster.
Therefore, the evolution of the Portuguese economy in 2021 will depend on two factors that are clearly manageable by the government: the speed of the general vaccination and the efficient use of European funds.
If the government is efficient, we will have more or less strong partial recovery, otherwise the recession may continue, which is the risk we will run in 2021.