Forecast: Global economy to grow by 4.3%, but equally, high-risk Brazil

Forecast: Global economy to grow by 4.3%, but equally, high-risk Brazil


After the crash of Govt-19 in 2020, the global economy is expected to recover this year, but equally across countries, operating sectors and income levels.

As a result, the Coffees Country and Sector Risk Barometer, a global leader in credit insurance and related services, was delivered globally on the 9th.

Kofas predicts that global growth will average 4.3% in 2021, while global trade is expected to increase to 6.7%.

According to the study, developing countries (including Brazil) continue to be directly (indirectly affected by the effects of the health crisis (with locks and other restrictions) and indirectly (in mature economies, especially in trade, commodity prices) and tourism).

Despite these difficulties, Latin American countries are often able to implement counter-economic policies, especially monetary policies, the Coface report said.

According to the text, the current financial situation is more favorable on the continent than the financial crisis of 2008, and high inflation has limited the activity of central banks.

This time, while inflation is still high in countries like Argentina, most LA central banks have cut base interest rates by an average of 150 basis points. In addition, PCs in more than 15 countries in the region began planning to buy government securities or private companies.

With regard to the risk of sectors of the economy, Coffeys surveyed the situation in 13 segments of 4 countries in Latin America (Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Mexico).

In the Brazilian case, the risk was considered moderate only in agribusiness and pharmaceuticals, and was very high in textiles and clothing. Among others, risk is classified as high: automotive, chemicals, construction, energy, metals, paper, retail, transport and wood.

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