The World Bank (BM) today revised its Global Economic Growth Plan to 4% by 2021 and expects a contraction of 4.3% by 2020, according to the Global Economic Outlook released on Tuesday.
“Global economic output is expected to expand by 4% in 2021 after last year’s decline caused by the Govt-19 epidemic, but will be below 5% of pre – epidemic projections,” BM said in a statement.
In terms of previously forecast numbers, in June, the David Malpas-led company cut its growth forecast for 2021 by 0.2 percentage points (pg), but the 2020 rating was 0.9 bucks, with a chance of 3.8% growth by 2022.
According to the World Bank, planned growth for 2022 is conditional on “sustained damage to potential growth” caused by the Govt-19 epidemic.
Global growth is projected to be 1.6% in 2021 and 2.5% in 2022, in the event of an adverse BME rating, and in severe adverse conditions, a new recession is expected in 2021 and 2% growth in 2022. Under the most optimistic scenario, growth will rise to almost 5% by 2021.
“Global recovery in the short term due to the resurgence of Govt-19 cases is expected to strengthen on the project horizon as confidence, consumption and trade gradually improve and are gradually supported by vaccination.” , The Washington-based company read in a statement released today.
Among the prospects for 2021, the World Bank identifies some risks to its program, namely “a large increase in viral cases, delays in obtaining and distributing vaccines, more severe and lasting effects on production caused by infection., And financial ‘depression’ triggered by high debt and weak growth.”
“The World Bank believes that fostering recession will be crucial to addressing the adverse legacy of the epidemic, protecting health and education, and prioritizing investments in digital technologies and‘ green ’infrastructure. [ecológica], Improving governance and improving credit transparency “.
In terms of advanced economies, the David Malpas-led company forecasts economic growth of 3.6%, 7%, 3.5% in the US, 3.6% in the European Union and 2.5% in Japan after the recession. 4% and 5.3% in 2020, respectively.
After 2.0% growth, China is expected to grow by 7.9% by 2021, “the slowest pace since 1976, but more than previous forecasts, helped to effectively control public investment-led epidemics and stimuli”.
“Covit-19 caused a global recession, the depth of which was only exacerbated by two world wars and the Great Depression of the last century and a half,” the World Bank said.
According to the company, “After the initial recovery in mid-2020, the recovery of the global economy has slowed down.
The World Bank warns of “significant impacts” of inflation and low interest rates, especially on monetary and monetary policy.
“In advanced economies, when there is little room for additional monetary policy support, central bank models are re-evaluated, while monetary policy plays a key role in large economic stability,” the World Bank said.
For a long time, the Washington – based bank believed that “the epidemic had arrived to mark the urgent need for reforms in advanced economies that would harness the benefits of economic restructuring and strengthen social support networks and the adoption of automation and digital technologies.”