Consumption is projected to rise to 96.6 million barrels per day from 5.5 million barrels per day in 2021, but after falling historically to 8.8 million barrels per day in 2020 due to the crisis, this estimate has dropped to 300,000 barrels per day in December. .
The report says that the reason for this downward correction is the travel limit due to the new epidemic wave in many countries.
The downward correction of forecasts is mainly focused on the first two quarters because the IEA expects 600,000 barrels per day less than last month’s estimate in the first quarter, minus 300,000 in the second, minus 100,000 in the third and 200,000 in the fourth.
“It will take more time to fully recover the demand for oil because in many countries new nutrients weigh on fuel sales,” the authors of the report say.
Last November, the pace of increase in global crude oil consumption slowed “significantly”, slowing it down due to an increase in Govt-19 epidemics in December, the IEA stressed.
Overall, in the fourth quarter of 2020, consumption was 1.5 million barrels more per day than in the third quarter, but before the outbreak, it was less than 6.4 million in the last three months of 2019.
On the supply side, the IEA hopes that the recent decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to further reduce production will help reduce reserves in anticipation of the impact of the outbreak. , They are so much more than they were before the crisis.
If OPEC members and allies comply with this decision 100%, global reserves could be reduced by 100 million barrels in the first quarter, equivalent to 1.1 million barrels a day.
Data from last November, OECD countries (Economic Cooperation and Development Organization) fell for the fourth consecutive month to 71.4 days, consuming 1.1 days less than in October. However, this margin is 9.4 days higher than the last five-year average.
According to the company, this year’s increase in demand will allow supply to start improving, and expects an increase in production to 1.2 million barrels per day.
According to the IEA, this could explain the rise in barrel prices, which rose to $ 57 in the case of Brent on January 12, something that has not happened since February 2020, in the wake of the crisis.
MC // JNM
Lusa / end