- One month after the order, we are in no position?
Number of victims – There is a half this week. Very significant reduction. In all ages and regions. The RT factor is 0.7. Good indicators.
Number of coaches – Here is a reduction, yes, but a reduction Very humble. The pressure on the NHS is good.
Number of patients in the ICU – The situation is stable at the highest level. The clear downward trend has not yet begun.
Number of deaths – There is a significant reduction. Even so, the numbers are still very high.
- Three decisions must be made:
We are improving At the level of new victims. The progress is significant. I.e. imprisonment works,
But the results are still not enough. Especially within hospitals (inpatients and patients in the ICU). And The truth is, this imprisonment was done to prevent the collapse of the NHS.
You can already see a light at the end of the tunnel. Proof of that, The European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECTE) is expected to release data next week, Portugal should no longer be the worst country in the EU. Even so, you can’t relax. The end of the tunnel is still a long way off. Should be with us Patience and confidence.
When will we define?
- The big question for the future is this: What are the acceptable numbers to start doubting? This week, there were two relevant statements: First, the symptom of an expert, Professor. Carmo Gomes, in the victim crowd; Below, an indication from PR. Both, in essence, point to the same numbers: Only distrust of the victim 2,000 / day or less; 1,500 hospitalized; 200 patients in the ICU.
- The purpose is to acknowledge that there is a fair consensus in the scientific and political community, We will see the effort we still have to make:
Number of victims / day – This week we have an average of 2906 victims daily; We still have to go to 2 thousand.
Number of coaches – This week we were admitted to an average of 5,531 hospitals daily; There is still a long way to go to reach 1,500.
Number of ICU inmates – There are an average of 839 patients in the ICU daily this week; We are still trying a lot to get below 200.
- According to the calendar, according to PR and PM, Never before the end of March. Of course, strict restrictions on circulation must be observed during Easter Avoid meetings. The exact opposite of Christmas.
Government change to Pantomia
- One big fact this week is that the government has changed its approach to the epidemic. Expresso said the Prime Minister was more distrustful than PR.
Before this, the government was very comfortable. He supported short, gentle imprisonment. Now, the government is in high demand. You will have a heavier, longer imprisonment. Until the end of March.
Prior to this, the government wanted to “save Christmas”, Relaxation and Facilitation. Now, he no longer wants the same about Easter. He did not want to relax or be comfortable.
Prior to this, the government was not enthusiastic about the idea of mass testing, Especially for quick tests. Now, he has changed his approach in the face of pressure from experts.
- I have no doubt that the most needed and least comfortable prime minister for the country is the best. But the big question is: why did the Prime Minister change his approach? For three essential reasons:
First, the Prime Minister is fragile. January made him very weak. Realized that it had failed. Now, he wants to heal, put the situation “on the rails” and not take any chances.
Second: The Prime Minister is highly marked by the consequences of this situation in Europe and the world. In this second stage we have the idea of Italy or Spain This is serious damage to the image and reputation of the country.
Third: The Prime Minister wants to retain the presidency of the Portuguese EU. But there is an inevitable condition to save it – In person in Porto on May 8, the EU Summit and the EU Summit with India were able to take place. If not for the face-to-face summit, we have a failure. And to hold a face-to-face summit, one month earlier, in April, the epidemic was under control and the numbers needed to be at the best in Europe.
- National Question: Ground vaccination is going well. We are ranked 18th in the EU, slightly below the EU average. We vaccinate as soon as possible by giving some of the vaccines we have. The opportunities offered by the new task force coordinator are positive – 70% of the population Vaccination at the end of summer; The whole country by the end of the year.
- European question, with influence in Portugal: there should be more vaccines than we have today. The difference between the 1st and 2nd quarters is less terrible:
In the first quarter – Less than 2.5 million volumes;
No second trimester – less than 3.7 million;
It then improves in the 3rd and 4th quarters – 600 thousand in the 3rd quarter; 800 thousand more dose in the 4th quarter. This is where the failure of the EU becomes clear. The agreements signed by the Union could not be implemented.
- Global Issue: This is another issue that worries us. A simple and serious problem: rich countries may complain about the rate at which they get vaccinated, but they have vaccines; In poorer countries, they will only have vaccines until 2024. This raises three issues.
A moral issue – Worsening disparities between rich and poor countries;
A health issue – Until global vaccination is carried out, the epidemic will not end. If the epidemic is not over, there is a risk of new strains of the virus appearing in countries that have not yet been vaccinated.. Variations that reach us quickly. We will not be completely safe until the world is fully vaccinated.
Economic problem – Part of the world is an economically defined part of the world. Global economic growth is suffering. Moreover, as opposed to the world economy, it is bad for everyone. Even in the European Union and Portugal.
Are official elections delayed?
- Elections in October or December are relatively indifferent to me. Honestly, I think there is in both cases Advantages and disadvantages.
Elections in early October We have Evil Fewer individuals were vaccinated than they were in early December. its true. But in December Is Evil Since it is winter, there is a bad time to campaign and vote, which can make voting worse.
So, I think the pros and cons override each other. Advantage of postponing vaccination for more is offset by the disadvantages of an election at the height of winter.
- The big problem is another and it can be a big “firecracker”: If the municipal elections are postponed for two months, the OE will vote before the municipal elections. It has serious consequences: in theory, This could be an advantage for the government and an issue for the PCB.
An advantage for the government: the risk of OE “failing” is much lower if the OE votes in front of municipalities. Which party has defeated the OE and wants to open a political crisis before the election, at the risk of being fined soon in that election?
A problem for PCB: PCB is expected to make OE possible due to the natural order of things. Just like you did in the past. But making OE possible in elections is the biggest political hurdle for the party. Instead of appearing to the voters against the government, it appears to be their ally.
- In view of all this, my prediction is that the government and the Socialist Party will not accept a change in the date of the municipal elections. To play it safe so as not to create a problem for its most loyal and predictable ally in budget matters, the PC is guaranteed OE approval after the municipal elections.
National Salvation Government?
- Some individuals, left and right, are calling for a government of national salvation. This week, PR said, “Don’t think about it.” What are we talking about? Two impossible and meaningless realities.
- First: Presidential Initiative Governments, Call yourself National unity or salvation. not that. This is science fiction.
- Parties form governments, not PR. Because governments need parliamentary support. Parties are represented in AR, not PR.
- It is true that these kinds of governments already exist. Before the amendment of the 1982 Constitution. When the PR had more powers than it has today. But they didn’t even leave a good impression. First It didn’t even cross the AR. Second Not even a year of life. Third It was only managed by the government until the elections. All left signs of instability and conflict.
- Second: There are those who think of a central bloc government between the Socialist Party and the PSD. This is constitutionally possible, but not politically possible. With both parties With the government at the center, it gives enormous strength to the climax. Sega and B.E. They had a way to grow now. They became genuine protesters, extremists and populists.
- The proposed solutions, if it turns out, are not possible. But beware: behind these plans, Sebastianism is not alone. There are legitimate and appropriate reasons; Frustration With the situation we experience; Disappointment With government action; Dissatisfaction Because there is no alternative. These reasons deserve attention. It is necessary to fight against irrational solutions. But it is also important to address the causes that lead to it.