Former U.S. Vice President and current Democratic candidate Joe Biden beckons as he makes a statement about the outcome of his meeting with the Ukrainian President on December 7, 2015 in Kiev.
SERGEY SUPINSKI | AFP | Getty images
Despite some strong sanctions and stronger criticism, Russia has failed to outperform U.S. foreign policy priorities under President Donald Trump, who appears to have a close relationship with President Vladimir Putin.
But experts say that if Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins the November 3rd election, President Biden is evaluating the impact on US-Russia relations.
Analysts, at least, expect Biden’s victory to heighten tensions between Washington and Moscow and increase the likelihood of new sanctions against Russia.
The country is already facing international sanctions against some key sectors close to Putin and Russian officials due to Ukraine’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, interference in the U.S. elections in 2016, and actions reported to be involved in a nerve agent attack in the UK. 2018.
Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor to Teneo Intelligence, said Biden’s victory will improve transatlantic relations between the United States and Europe and see a “new US commitment to NATO” that Europe will welcome.
But he also cited the recent history of mutual distrust and criminal relations between the Kremlin and US Democrats, saying that such results would mean “mostly a drawback for Russia.”
“In general, the potential Biden presidency is negative for Moscow and has the potential to further exacerbate bilateral relations in terms of investigation and substance. Democratic candidates have long maintained a strict stance against President Vladimir Putin’s administration.” Said on a Friday note.
US President Donald Trump (R) meets Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) on the first day of the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan on June 28, 2019.
Anadolu Distributor | Anadolu Distributor | Getty images
“The Kremlin’s contempt for Biden goes back to his vice president, especially his vice president, who called for sanctions against Russia in response to the 2014 crisis in Ukraine.”
Significant dispute resolution in the Donbass region of the Crimea and eastern Ukraine (which has two pro-Russian regions that have declared themselves republics), despite Germany and France’s efforts to mediate the ongoing settlement that both sides can do. Still avoiding Moscow and Kiev. Live together
Tursa without visible process Donbass and Crimea dispute resolution -Regions where Biden was heavily involved as Vice President-“Moscow could hardly expect any meaningful sanctions easing, and a potential Biden presidency could be more stringent in implementing existing measures.”
The risk of new sanctions can also increase. Given Russia’s alleged interference in the 2020 presidential election.
However, it is unlikely that new sanctions will be imposed on Russia immediately, according to Timothy Ash, senior emerging market strategist at Bluebay Asset Management.
“I think the course of US-Russia relations will remain on this deteriorating path,” he said Saturday, “but I don’t know what to expect of further’repressed’ sanctions against Russia to be put into effect immediately.”
“I think all candidates who are likely to run Russian affairs in Biden’s presidency are experienced and of high quality. They would not want to enforce sanctions for sanctions. They would want a very balanced and logical approach. Will.” “It is important for the United States to establish business relationships with Russia to ensure the strategic interests of the United States,” he stressed.
He said, under Chairman Biden, both sides must learn where “can tolerate each other in certain areas of mutual interest, such as arms control, and reduce the risk of conflict in which strategic interests compete. Regions such as Ukraine, Belarus, Turkey. It’s part of the toolkit here, but there’s only one such tool.”
Arm control However, it is an area where two Russian observers believe that it can be a point of mutual interest and harmony. Biden said he wants an extension or similar implementation of a major US-Russia nuclear weapons reduction treaty known as the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty in 2019.
Teneo’s Tour said, “According to a recent statement from both sides, negotiations on a new strategic arms reduction treaty (START) are one of the areas where progress is expected if Biden is elected.” “But the schedule will be very difficult as the current treaty expires on February 5, 2021.”
Russia has recognized that arms control can be a positive dynamic under President Biden. In early October, Putin criticized Biden’s “sharp anti-Russian investigation,” but said he was encouraged by Biden’s comments about a new arms treaty or expansion of a new START.
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