With each step Costa wins and threatens to take Rio to the mat

Imagine the state of politics as a boxing ring. In the left corner is Antonio Costa and in the right corner is Rui Rio. Above all we know about the fight, the Socialist Party leader is beating the PSD leader by several points. At some point, it will take you to the carpet.

That is, at least, the result J.N., D.N. and D.S.F.: Costa’s advantage over Rio is greater in performance appraisal, in the hope of becoming prime minister, or in evaluating the personality and policies of each created by the Portuguese.

Let’s start with the new variable that measures the personal and political appeal of both leaders. Statistics show that the Socialist starts from a very solid platform: 37% of the population and its policies. In addition, 54% are like personality regardless of what they think about policies; And 48% are like policies regardless of personal assessment; Only one in four Portuguese agrees that he does not like the man or his politics.

On the other hand, the social democratic platform can not be bad: 34% do not like the leader or his policies, almost doubling the percentage that admits almost unconditional admiration (17%). This results in a poor result when 28% of those who prefer policies are taken into account, regardless of personal ratings. Regardless of his political preferences (40%) he can somewhat reduce the opponent’s blows when it comes to the character’s taste.

Nature vs Politics

One proof of this study is that the Portuguese put more weight on character than their policies. This conclusion is precisely where Rui Rio’s conclusions lie. After all sections of the model have been calculated (based on gender, age, social class, area or electoral preferences), the political preferences of appeal will never override the appeal of individual characteristics. There is one case – the respondents are between the ages of 18 and 34 – of which 30% have a tie.

This is also a rule when choices related to Antonio Costa are at stake. In the case of the Socialist, however, there are some notable exceptions, in which the appeal of the policies is stronger than the appeal of the ruling class: 62% in the metropolitan area of ​​Porto (as in their policy, regardless of personal taste), and among voters of the Black, Bon and Liberal initiative (however) It should be noted that two-thirds do not like the leader or his policies).

Performance evaluation

While the variable under analysis is the classic performance rating, Costa’s superiority over the Rio is very high. Socialist scores of 54% positive and 25% negative made him the only party leader with a positive balance (24 points). Women, Portuguese people 65 and older and, of course, the socialist electorate are the biggest motivators.

According to the Social Democrat, he reclaimed the land in December, adding three more points, reaching a positive rating of 32%, and subtracting three points, down from a negative rating of 35%. But it still has a negative balance, although it is far from the worst decisions of other party leaders. Rio is highly rated by men, northerners, the elderly, and PSD voters (61% positive in this category, far from Costa’s 88% of Socialists).

Hope to rule

Overall, what is the main reason for the soldiers to put themselves in the ring, the attempt to become prime minister, Antonio Costa Rui takes Rio to the mat: 53% trust the Socialist when they rule the country, 19% choose the Social Democrat. The Prime Minister again benefits from a good image among the female and elderly voters, but he is well established throughout the Left.

The interested prime minister is down, but the war count only ends when it comes time to go to the polls. You may always be tempted to change your mind, for example, 22% of people do not trust anyone. Its most loyal followers are those who, like other types of estimates, live again in the North, while at the same time having a male preference. Party support is low because Rio trusts only those who vote for his party and the Liberals.